Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Experts Alert

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."